Escritoire\Writing\Case\Probability-Expression\NATO_Intelligence_Probability_Yardstick

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) uses terms to present estimates of probability in military intelligence reporting; the Intelligence Probability Yardstick.

The discontinuities in the range of probabilities that terms are applied to indicates they do not represent an absolutely accurate value. However, the calculations employed by Pacisco may produce results that fall in the gaps.

As implemented in Pacisco, when entering a rating using the NATO terms, the probability values used are the middle of the range:

• Almost certain >95% is 0.975
• Highly likely 80-90% is 0.85
• Likely or probable 55-75% is 0.65
• Realistic possibility 40-50% is 0.45
• Unlikely 25-35% is 0.3
• Highly unlikely 10-20% is 0.15
• Remote chance 0-5% is 0.025

When calculated responses are displayed, the NATO terms are assigned as:

• < 1 & > 0.925 is ‘Almost certain >95%’
• <= 0.925 & > 0.775 is ‘Highly likely 80-90%’
• <= 0.775 & > 0.525 is ‘Likely or probable 55-75%’
• <= 0.525 & > 0.375is ‘Realistic possibility 40-50%’
• <= 0.375 & > 0.225 is ‘Unlikely 25-35%’
• <= 0.225 & > 0.075 is ‘Highly unlikely 10-20%’
• <= 0.075 & > 0 is ‘Remote chance 0-5%’

In addition to allow for handling mathematical and logical values:

• 1 is ‘True’
• 0 is ‘False’

Also ‘bad’ ratings can be selected:

• Unrated
• Illogical
• Incoherent
• Irrelevant
• Mendacious