Escritoire\Writing\Case\Probability-Expression

Rating the plausibility of a case in Pacisco requires the assignment of a probability value. This may be done explicitly by assigning a number between 0 to 1 inclusive. However, consistently assigning valid probability values as plausibility ratings is not easy. Organisations who deal in assessing probabilities have devised interpretive terms that can be used in place of raw numbers. Two of these have been implemented in Pacisco: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Likelihood Scale, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Intelligence Probability Yardstick.

Interface Details

Under ‘More/Set_Options/Terms_used_to_express_probability’ one of three options may be checked:

• Probability values: Explicit probability values (the default option)
• IPCC: Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Likelihood Scale
• NATO: Based on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Intelligence Probability Yardstick

This will cause appropriate terms to appear in the rating selector and also in prior and post results.